Race and Murder

There are various accusations made against the police. Including that it is institutionally racist. That black areas are ‘over policed’, that the criminal justice treats black people worse.

There is undoubtedly some truth in all of this. There are likely to be more police in areas with higher crime and we know that police stop and search black people at a higher rate than white people. This could explain higher rates of conviction for possession and knife crime. Since this could simply be a function of being stopped more.

But what about murder? This is a crime that will always be investigated and it seems likely that conviction would not be significantly swayed by race.

However the prevalence of black murderers is 6 times higher than population % would suggest.

You are also far more likely to be a victim of murder if you are black. 15% of victims are black compared to 3% of the community.

All data from the ONS

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Categories: Race

Are black people more likely to die in police custody?

Since George Floyd there has been much hand wringing and introspection about ‘Black Lives Matter’ in the UK. Including, largely unchallenged, claims about institutional racism. One of these claims, directly imported from the states, is that blacks are more likely to die in custody.

The question is. Is it true?

Independent Office for Police conduct
Link

There you go! Definitely true we have a dangerously racist police force.

But this is just daft…

Otherwise the police would be displaying appalling misandry! It is vital to look at deaths compared to custody rates.

As soon as we do this (see below) it is clear that there is no racial bias. Instead a white person is 25% more likely to die in custody than a black person.

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Categories: Race

Less poverty than ever before

More people are coming out of poverty than ever before.

Ravallion (2016) updated with World Bank (2019)

The World Bank defines extreme poverty as living on less than $1.90 per day. Using this metric nearly in 1890 90% of the world lived in extreme poverty now it is less than 10%.

Between 1990 and 2015 over a billion people came out of extreme poverty.

We are more productive than ever before

As population has grown this has led to unbelievably more productivity. We produce far more with far less. This is pretty much all upside!

More productive = less environmental damage + less starvation

AND it is continuing to increase…

GDP Data Source: Maddison Project/World Bank